The global pharmerging market is anticipated to witness steady CAGR over the forecast period. Factors such as rising population due to low infant mortality rates and high focus on developing innovative drugs are expected to boost the growth. Among 17 emerging countries; China, India, and Russia are projected to hold a major market share in near future.
Patent expirations and availability of low cost generic drugs are anticipated to slow down sales in matured markets such as U.S, Europe, Japan, Canada, and U.K. As a result, major players are expected to bring in new products to maintain and even expand their industry share. This factor is likely to drive the pharmerging market in the forthcoming years. Launch of innovative products for diseases such as lupus, diabetes, arrhythmia, melanoma, prostate cancer, and osteoporosis among others may positively influence expansion in near future.
Macroeconomic factors such as greater awareness about drugs in semi-urban and rural markets and epidemiological changes are anticipated to propel growth of the market for pharmerging over the forecast period. High prevalence of age-related disorders and rapid development in private hospital industry are also expected to bode well for expansion. Increased healthcare expenditure by governments is expected to further drive growth.
Emerging markets are likely to focus more on development of low cost generic drugs. This factor is anticipated to restrain growth of pharmerging in these regions. Changes in regulatory policies are likely to curb the growth as they have long-term impacts on pricing and medicine usage. Price sensitivity is another challenge likely to be faced by major companies. Regulatory norms such as the Affordable Care Act in U.S. and Japan’s price cut system are projected to rebalance spending priorities for markets.
Possibility of including major drugs under Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) may affect the retail and wholesale margins earned by chemists. Lower margins are further expected to lead to reduced production rates. Some of the major pharmaceutical companies which have experienced a negative growth rate due to DPCO include Sanofi-Aventis, Lupin, Zydus Cadila, etc. this factor is expected to negatively influence growth pharmerging.
On the basis of pharma growth requirements, pharmerging countries are categorized into tier-I, tier-II, and tier-III. Tier-I includes China while Tier-II includes India, Brazil, and Russia. Tier-III includes Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Egypt, South Africa and Mexico. China is a very complex market and is expected to focus on sophisticated operating models. Shrinking prices, complex distribution system, different commercial models in different provinces, and regulations favoring domestic manufacturers are the primary challenges faced by new entrants in China.
Indian market is expected to be highly fragmented and competitive. Strategic planning coupled with new product launches can help major pharmaceutical companies to be successful in this region. Adaption of local trends and strategic market entry can help new entrants. Russia is likely to be very volatile, due to price control system for essential drugs. Also, policies such as substitution of imported drugs with locally manufactured equivalents may pose a challenge to major players.
The market in Brazil is anticipated to be commoditized in retail segment as unmet medical needs are mostly satisfied by nonretail drugs. Establishment of CITEC/CONITEC is likely to act as a barrier for product inclusions in funding programs. Innovation is focused on niche private segments as demand for expenditure on complex therapies is usually avoided.
Major players operating in the market for pharmerging are AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Merck, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Abbott Laboratories, CSL Behring, Johnson & Johnson, Sun Pharmaceutical, Aspen, Teva Pharmaceutical, Bayer, Valeant Pharmaceutical, Biogen, Baxter, STADA, Mylan, Takeda Pharma, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and Endo Health Pharmaceuticals. The market is highly fragmented due to the presence of small and medium businesses. Product launches, mergers and acquisitions, and innovations are anticipated to define competition among top players. Majority of companies focus on merger and acquisitions to expand market presence and increase profits.
Major pharmaceutical companies are expected to deal with some uncertainties in terms of regulation and pricing policies laid down to ensure a profitability. Anticipation and analysis of compliance risks and implementation of suitable market entry strategies are some of the popular business strategies.
Research Support Specialist, USA